The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Volume 52, July 1948 - April, 1949

)igratiol ito 6ast reras
1835-1860
BARNES F. LATHROP
(Concluded)
RATES OF MIGRATION
HE annual rates of migration into East Texas are presented
in Table 1 i and Figure 3. The adjusted numbers repre-
sent a constant but unknown fraction of total arrivals
each year; they are to be taken as index numbers, valid in com-
parison with one another, and capable of showing rate, but other-
wise meaningless as long as the detection rate of the child-ladder
method remains undetermined. The index number for the year
ending May, 1835, is 43, for the next year, 61. For the year end-
ing May, 1837, roughly the first year of the Republic of Texas,
the index rises to lot, and it stays at a level around 12o all the
way through the year ending May, 1844. If the two figures for
June, 1834-May, 1836 be accepted-their statistical foundation is
not overly strong-then one may conclude that the volume of
migration into East Texas doubled soon after the Revolution.
The index for June, 1836, to May, 1844, thought to be reliable,
indicates an almost constant volume of migration throughout the
period of the Republic. The decided drop in 1842-1843, if not
a statistical fluke, may be a consequence of the troubles with
Mexico. For 1844-1845 the index is about fifty per cent above
the previous level, and it continues upward, except for a flat spot
coinciding with the Mexican War, to a peak in the years from
June, 1850, to May, 1853, when the volume of migration was
about three times what it had been during the Republic. The
five years following witnessed a marked decline, the index falling
from 377 in 1852-1853 to 253 in 1857-1858. What happens next
is both unexpected and embarrassing to an amateur statistician.
Despite corrections believed adequate, the index jumps to a new
high of about 450 for the two years ending June 1, 186o, seeming
to prove that migration into East Texas, after dwindling for five

Texas State Historical Association. The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Volume 52, July 1948 - April, 1949. Austin, Texas. The Portal to Texas History. http://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth101121/. Accessed July 22, 2014.