The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Volume 33, July 1929 - April, 1930 Page: 109
This periodical is part of the collection entitled: Southwestern Historical Quarterly and was provided to The Portal to Texas History by the Texas State Historical Association.
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The Natural Limits of Slavery Expansion
with their family servants, and in the social prestige which at-
tached to the possession of an ample retinue of servants. It
was evident, however, that the exodus would go on until the
lure of the Southwest lost its force.
As long as there was an abundance of cheap and fertile cotton
lands, as there was in Texas, and the prices of cotton remained
good, there would be a heavy demand for labor on the new plan-
tations. As far as fresh lands were concerned, this condition
would last for some time, for the supply of lands in Texas alone
was enormous. But at the end of the decade, there were unmis-
takable signs that a sharp decline in cotton prices and planting
profits was close at hand. The production of cotton had in-
creased slowly, with some fluctuations, from 1848 to 1857, and
the price varied from about ten cents to over thirteen cents a
pound on the New York market. But a rapid increase in pro-
duction began in 1858 and the price declined. The crop of 1860
was twice that of 1850. Probably the increase in production was
due in part to the rapid building of railroads throughout the
South toward the end of the decade, which brought new lands
within reach of markets and increased the cotton acreage; but
part of the increase was due to the new fields in Texas. There
was every indication of increased production and lower price
levels for the future, even if large allowance be made for poor-
crop years. There was small chance of reducing the acreage,
for the cotton planter could not easily change to another crop.
Had not the war intervened, there is every reason to believe that
there would have been a continuous overproduction and very low
prices throughout the sixties and seventies.
What would have happened then when the new lands of the
Southwest had come into full production and the price of cotton
had sunk to the point at which it could not be grown with profit
on the millions of acres of poorer soils in the older sections?
The replenishment of the soil would not have solved the prob-
lem for it would only have resulted in the production of more
cotton. Even on the better lands the margin of profit would have
declined.16 Prices of slaves must have dropped then, even in the
"Improved farm machinery, which was already beginning to be in-
troduced on the plantations, would certainly have lowered the cost of
crop production; but it must have resulted both in an increase of acre-
age-thus further reducing prices by increasing the total yield-and109
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Texas State Historical Association. The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Volume 33, July 1929 - April, 1930, periodical, 1930; Austin, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth101090/m1/123/: accessed April 25, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu; crediting Texas State Historical Association.