The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Volume 52, July 1948 - April, 1949 Page: 348
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Southwestern Historical Quarterly
32o. The final total is assumed to consist of the corrected total plus
the remainder of 98 brought down from 1848-1849. The sum of the
corrected ascertained arrivals for 1857-1858, 1858-1859, and 1859-1860
has been distributed into final annual totals by carrying down bal-
ances from 1857-1858 to 1858-1859, and from 1858-1859 to 1859-1860,
in the proportions assumed above. This process is a conglomeration
of suppositions and assumptions, and its uncertainty is the more
deplorable because of the unexpectedly high final totals for 1858-
1859 and 1859-1860. (See above, under "Rates of Migration.") How-
ever, the doubt attaches mostly to the distribution. The reductions
yielding the corrected totals are probably not far wrong, and the
three corrected totals are so large (averaging 383.6) that any distri-
bution of their sum gives unexpectedly high final annual totals.
No one who has tried to read the two paragraphs preceding will
question that one-child detections constitute a nuisance deserving
abatement. Indeed, a great deal of time and trouble could be saved
by ignoring all arrivals, whether evidenced by one child or two, in
the years just before the census, and relying upon adjusted ascer-
tained arrivals from the next census to cover those years. The objec-
tion to such simplification is that there will always be a last census,
and to stop short of it may be undesirable. For example, an investi-
gator studying from the Census of 188o the huge migration into Texas
during the seventies would be loath to quit with 1876-1877 or 1877-
1878. If the child-ladder method is ever used enough for its charac-
teristics to be fully determined, then omission of the years imme-
diately preceding each census except the last will be permissible.
Meanwhile, the worrisome period needs to be included in the hope
of finding out enough about proper correction and distribution to
allow confident handling of the data for the eve of the last census.
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Texas State Historical Association. The Southwestern Historical Quarterly, Volume 52, July 1948 - April, 1949, periodical, 1949; Austin, Texas. (texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth101121/m1/357/: accessed October 20, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, texashistory.unt.edu; crediting Texas State Historical Association.