Texas Jewish Post (Fort Worth, Tex.), Vol. 64, No. 40, Ed. 1 Thursday, October 7, 2010 Page: 4 of 28
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4 I October 7,2010
NEWS ANALYSIS
TEXAS JEWISH POST & SINCE 1947
For Netanyahu to accept new reeze,
U.S. might have to sweeten the deal
By Leslie Susser
JERUSALEM (JTA) — Follow-
ing reports of an unprecedented
U.S. offer of a host of assurances
in return for a 60-day extension
of the freeze on building in West
Bank settlements, some political
analysts are wondering why Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
not grabbed the deal with both
hands.
According to the reports, Presi-
dent Obama is offering Netanyahu
pledges that the United States will:
•Not ask for additional exten-
sions on the partial ban on settle-
ment building, which expired Sept.
26;
•Commit to using the U.S. veto
to prevent U.N. recognition of a
unilaterally declared Palestinian
state, if Israeli-Palestinian negotia-
tions fail to bear fruit;
•"Accept the legitimacy" of Is-
rael's security needs as defined by
the Netanyahu government — un-
derstood as referring to Netanya-
hu's demand for a long-term Israeli
military presence in the Jordan
Valley, in the eastern West Bank;
•Broker talks with neighboring
Arab states on a "regional security
structure" — a nod to Netanyahu's
desire for cooperation on con-
fronting Iran;
•Enhance Israel's security
through the sale of a second squad-
ron of state-of-the-art stealth F-35
fighters and space cooperation, in-
cluding access to U.S. satellite early
warning systems.
The price: Israel must agree to
extend for 60 days the recently ex-
pired West Bank building freeze.
If Netanyahu spurns the offer,
Israel not only would lose out on
all the above, but the Americans
would come out publicly in sup-
port of the 1967 borders as the ba-
sis for all future territorial negotia-
tions with the Palestinians.
On its face, the deal would seem
like a no-brainer for Netanyahu to
take. So why hasn't he?
For one thing, it's not only up
to Netanyahu. He needs the ap-
proval of a settlement freeze exten-
sion from his 29-member Cabinet
or at least his 15-member Secu-
rity Cabinet, and he doesn't have
enough votes yet in those bodies.
While by most accounts Netanya-
hu is inclined to take the deal and
is pushing for Cabinet members to
approve it, the United States first
might have to sweeten the pot.
The U.S. offer followed inten-
sive negotiations in Washington
between Israeli Defense Minis-
u
Photo: Kobi Gideon / Flash90 / JTA
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seen here at his weekly Cabinet meeting on Oct. 4, reportedly is trying to con-
vince Cabinet members to agree to extend the West Bank settlement freeze by 60 days.
"As so often in the
past, Netanyahu is
caught between the
U.S. administra-
tion and his right-
leaning coalition."
Leslie Susser,
JTA
ter Ehud Barak and an American
team led by veteran Middle East
adviser Dennis Ross. The idea was
to affirm the U.S. commitments in
a presidential letter to Netanyahu
to persuade him and pro-settle-
ment members of his government
to go along with a new temporary
freeze — and in so doing keep
alive the direct Israeli-Palestin-
ian peace talks launched in early
September. Palestinian Author-
ity President Mahmoud Abbas
has pledged to quit the talks if the
freeze is not extended.
For now, the Israeli prime
minister is being pressed by Cabi-
net hard-liners not to accept the
American package as is. They
warn that it is all very general and
that much of it will not stand up
in practice.
The hard-liners are suspicious,
too, of Barak's motives. They be-
lieve Barak is behind the Ameri-
can offer because he fears that if
the peace talks with the Palestin-
ians break down, his Labor Party
would be forced to withdraw from
the government. Such a move
would cost Barak the post of de-
fense minister and, in all likeli-
hood, his political future.
As things stand, Netanyahu
does not have the votes for the
deal.
In the full 29-member Cabi-
net, 14 ministers are for extending
the freeze and 15 are against. In
the 15-member Security Cabinet
the count is seven for and eight
against, and in the unofficial fo-
rum of seven top advisers, three
are for extending the freeze and
four are against. In Netanyahu's
governing coalition, without the
support of Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas,
Torah Judaism, Habayit Hayehudi
and Likud hard-liners, the prime
minister would have the support
of fewer than 40 members of the
120-member Knesset.
Netanyahu's greatest political
fear is of a repeat of 1999, when
after making concessions to the
Palestinians at Wye Plantation,
he lost his right-wing political
support base and was roundly
defeated by Barak in the ensuing
election. This time, the scenario
that Netanyahu wants to avoid is
accepting an American package,
going ahead with the peacemaking
and then losing the next election to
Kadima's Tzipi Livni.
Even if Netanyahu could jet-
tison the pro-settler parties from
his coalition and bring in Kadima
— changing the balance of power
in the government and the Knesset
in favor of pro-negotiation parties,
and accepting the U.S. package —
TUP
TEXAS JEWISH P0ST$S!NCE 1947
it could cost him the premiership.
Netanyahu therefore is being
extra-careful about making any
moves that could lose him large
swaths of what he sees as his natu-
ral constituency.
The Israeli prime minister also
has a major strategic concern. Ac-
cording to confidants, he fears
that as soon as any new 60-day
freeze ends, the Americans will
put a "take it or leave it peace plan"
of their own on the table. With
the U.S. midterm elections over,
Obama might feel able to publicly
present parameters for a peace deal
that Netanyahu would find impos-
sible to accept.
Israel might then find itself to-
tally isolated and under intolerable
international pressure. That is a
scenario Netanyahu hopes the cur-
rent negotiations with the Ameri-
cans will help him avoid.
So far, Netanyahu has spoken
of ongoing "delicate" negotiations
with the Americans and implied
that much of what has been report-
ed in the press is inaccurate.
As so often in the past, Netan-
yahu is caught between the U.S.
administration and his right-lean-
ing coalition. If he chooses his co-
alition, he risks losing the support
of the current administration; if he
chooses America, he fears he could
lose his coalition and, with it, the
premiership.
What Labor and Likud moder-
ates reportedly are telling him is
that it is not 1999, and that now he
can have his cake and eat it, too: If
he goes with the Americans and
the peace process, he will win the
next election hands down.
Jimmy Wisch
Publisher & Editor | 1947-2002
EDITOR & PUBLISHER
Rene Wisch
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sharonw@texasjewishpost.com
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Wisch, Rene. Texas Jewish Post (Fort Worth, Tex.), Vol. 64, No. 40, Ed. 1 Thursday, October 7, 2010, newspaper, October 7, 2010; Fort Worth, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth188313/m1/4/: accessed April 19, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu; .