Polk County Enterprise (Livingston, Tex.), Vol. 132, No. 91, Ed. 1 Thursday, November 13, 2014 Page: 4 of 38
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Opinions
[p@Bk County EntorpfrO©©
Page 4A ■ Thursday, November 13, 2014
Republicans win
big across Texas
When the herd is wrong
o. that was fun. One
minute we’re prom-
W—J ised a half dozen toss
up races to determine control
of the United States Senate,
and the next Democrats are
ducking under their desks as
Massachusetts and Maryland
elected Republican gover-
nors. Let the "Very Important
Pundits’’ take turns on cable
news assigning blame for the
losses. I'm more interested
in why the polls didn’t tell us
the wave was coming.
Most of the electoral fore-
casts that aggregated polls
predicted a likely Republican
takeover of the Senate, but
each race was supposed to be
close. Alaska and Iowa were
supposed to be 1-point races.
Only 2-3 percent separated
the candidates in Colorado.
New Hampshire and North
Carolina were close, but
Democrats were favored in
those races. And that was
just the public polls.
Privately, Democratic
pollsters were not nearly as
bearish. They spoke of the
problems polling Hipanics in
Colorado, the native popula-
tion in Alaska, and the new
A fricHti-American influx into
the Atlanta suburbs. There
was complicated talk about
the messed up statistical
modeling in the public polls.
We’ll be line in North Caro-
lina. they assured all who
paid to listen to their advice.
The big picture gave no
hint of the coming electoral
wave. Barack Obama was no
more unpopular than he was
The Raaina Moderate
JASON STANFORD
in 2013. The country told
pollsters they didn’t particu-
larly favor either political
party. Voters told pollsters
they hated congress more
than two-day hangovers.
Right up until the polls
closed, all the king's horses
and all the king’s men were
confident in their analysis
that the election could go
other way. Paul Begala, a
smart man of good character,
confidently told a national
television audience that vot-
ers didn’t hate Democrats
so much that they wanted to
reward Republicans.
Lifeguards and surfers
agreed; there was no wave
coming. Then a tsunami
came and wiped out the en-
tire city.
The only reason the 2014
midterms weren’t worse is
that Democrats had not won
back all their losses from
2010. In other words, they
didn’t have much left to
lose, but Republicans nearly
cleaned them out.
The Senate races in Alas-
ka, Colorado, and Iowa were
not close. Republicans won
those big. North Carolina
wasn’t particularly close ei-
ther, but the Republican won
that, too. You know what
was close? Mark Warner
barely won re-election in
Virginia, a race that was on
no one's radar.
Democrats spent the entire
election complaining that
polls were skewed against
them, when in fact they were
skewed in their favor. Ac-
cording to Nate Silver, who
hasn’t been wrong yet, the
average Senate poll overesti-
mated the Democrat’s chance
by 4 percent.
This isn't the first time this
has happened, and before
you start yelling about one
party or the other, it happens
to both. Polls were biased
toward Democrats by 3-4
points in 1994 and 2002
and towards Republicans by
2-5 points in 1998,2006,
and 2012. In fact, it was the
2012 bias that probably led
to the polling community to
overcompensate by adjust-
ing their turnout predictions
for 2014, leading to a whole
bunch of bad polls.
Here's how that works.
Imagine a state where 10
people live. If you assume
six of them are white men
over the age of 60, then you
can assume that a Republi-
can will win. If you assume
six of them are African-
American women of any age.
then the polls will favor a
Democrat. In extremely rudi-
mentary terms, this is where
mistakes begin.
These days, polls are ag-
gregated and examined by
guys like Silver, so there is
a tendency to not want one's
poll to appear wrong by de-
viating from the consensus.
These are called “outliers”
and are immediately suspi-
cious. So pollsters agree with
each other’s assumptions,
which is called “herding.”
And that’s how they can all
be wrong at the same time in
the same way.
We’re never going to get
this completely right because
humans are at the root of it,
though it shouldn’t take a
brain surgeon to get a poll
close enough to be useful in
an election. If I'm going to
see my team wiped off the
map. I’d at least like to know
it's coming.
© Copyright 2014 Jason
Stanford, distributed exclu-
sively by Cagle Cartoons
newspaper syndicate.
Jason Stanford is a regu-
lar contributor to the Austin
American-Statesman, a
Democratic consultant and
a Truman National Security
Project partner. You can
email him at stanford@op-
presearch.com and follow
him on Twitter @JasStan-
ford.
Obama and the terrible, horrible, very bad day
r | 1o call the grotesque
I drubbing suffered
-L by the Democratic
Party in the midterms monu-
mental, is like referring to
the surface of the sun as
warm. The scene was so gris-
ly, acutely sensitive Demo-
crats (most of them) were
forced to avert their eyes or
risk anaphylactic shock.
If you ever wanted to see
numbers bleed, this was your
night. Surprised no referee
jumped onto the CNN set.
rang a bell, and raised the
Koch Brothers' hands tri-
umphantly in the air. The
big question is how much
the FCC will fine the net-
works for airing the election
returns, thereby exposing
young viewers to such gro-
tesque brutality.
Back in 2010, President
Obama described the mid-
term losses as a shellacking;
this was more of an epic
trouncing with faint over-
tures of catastrophic putres-
cence. Political junkies who
stayed up late were treated
to a front row seat at a world
championship seal- clubbing
finals. Rated ZV for zombie
violence.
Yes, indeed, the world has
changed, but just a little. The
WILL DURST
Senate is now controlled by
Republicans, much like it
was before. The House did
turn a darker red and several
Governorships moved into
the GOP column, including
Illinois. Massachusetts and
Maryland, which was as
expected as Tiffany eggs in
a litter box. But Washington
will stumble on. Grand pos-
tures will be assumed. Little
will get done. Politics as
usual continues.
On this night, finding
liberal silver linings was
tougher than a truck stop
steak. Marijuana legalization
passed in Alaska, Oregon
and DC, and minimum wage
increase propositions won
victories. The lone big GOP
loser was Former Massachu-
setts Senator Scott Brown,
who ran for the same office
in New Hampshire, giving
him the unique distinction
of being the first truck driv-
ing male model to lose 2 US
Senate races to 2 different
women in 2 different states.
Rumors abound he is cur-
rently scouting for property
in Maine and Vermont.
Many reasons were given
for the democratic debacle.
Dark money poured into ads
at the last minute. President
Obama as a third rail. Estab-
lishmentarians keeping the
Tea Party down. Young peo-
ple and African Americans
staying home. New episodes
of N1CS and NCIS; New Or-
leans. One or the other, okay,
but both?
Even amidst the carnage,
the two sides did their best
to make the requisite bi-par-
tisanship noises of nice. Day
after the election, soon- to-
be Senate Majority Leader.
Mitch McConnell, held a
press conference to announce
he wants to work with the
president. Of course, he was
hard to understand, failing to
turn off the chainsaw behind
his back during the press
conference.
Yeah. The GOP wants to
work with the president. The
same way a 5 year old with
a magnifying glass wants
to work with ants. Like a
gorilla wants to work with
bananas. A ten ton boulder
falling off a cliff wants to
work with windshields.
Obama should prom-
ise Republicans twice the
amount of cooperation he
received after the 2012 elec-
tion. Because as everyone
knows; 2 times zero is still
zero. But despite increasing
odds, the president says he
is still ready and willing to
fight for his agenda. As soon
as he figures out what it is.
Staffers boast he doesn't
know the meaning of the
word “quit.” Apparently, he’s
not overly familiar with the
words “consensus,” “strat-
egy” or “leadership” either.
Copyright ©2014, Will
Durst, distributed by the Ca-
gle Cartoons Inc. syndicate.
Will Durst is an award-
winning, nationally ac-
claimed political comic.
Email Will at durst@
caglecartoonscom. Visit to
willdurstcom to find about
more about his new CD,
“Elect to Laugh ” and calen-
dar of personal appearances.
AUSTIN - Winners in
the Nov. 4 general election
on the whole proved that
incumbency and/or running
as a Republican continue to
be assets when Texas voters
hit the polls.
Democrats Wendy Davis
and Leticia Van de Putte
lost by wide margins to
Republicans Greg Abbott and
Dan Patrick for the offices
of governor and lieutenant
governor, respectively. In
the Abbott-Davis race, the
spread was 20 points: 59 to
39 percent. Similarly, the
spread in the Patrick-Van de
Putte race was 19 points: 58
to 39 percent.
Incumbent U.S. Sen. John
Comyn, R-Texas, rebuffed
Democratic challenger
David Alameel, a Dallas
businessman, by a 27 percent
margin or 2.85 million votes
toAlameel’s 1.59 million.
Incumbents, regardless of
party, exacted a near sweep
in races for congressional
seats. The exception was
incumbent freshman U.S.
Rep. Pete P. Gallego,
D-Alpine, who lost massive
Congressional District 23
stretching from El Paso
to San Antonio by two
percentage points (about
2,500 votes) to Republican
Will Hurd of San Antonio.
Republicans to head
agencies
In the races to head
state agencies. Republican
state Sen. Ken Paxton of
McKinney was elected
attorney general, to replace
Greg Abbott as the state’s
chief law enforcement
officer. Paxton, of McKinney,
received nearly 59 percent
of the vote to Democratic
challenger Sam Houston
of Houston, who received
38 percent. Farmer and
Republican state Sen.
Glenn Hegar of Katy
in the race to succeed
Texas Comptroller Susan
Combs, beat Houston-area
accountant and Democrat
Mike Collier by a margin
of 20 points: 58 percent
to 38 percent. Republican
Fort Worth attorney George
P. Bush in the race to
succeed Jerry Patterson as
land commissioner beat
Democratic opponent John
Cook by a 25-point margin,
60 percent to 35 percent.
Former state Rep. Sid
Miller, R-Stephenville,
won the race to succeed
Agriculture Commissioner
Todd Staples, over Cleburne
farmer and Democrat
Jim Hogan by 20 points,
58 percent to 38 percent.
Petroleum engineer Ryan
Sitton, a Friendswood
Republican, won a seat on
the oil and gas regulating
Texas Railroad Commission,
beating Democratic opponent
Steve Brown, a Houston
businessman, 58 percent to
36 percent.
Most other posts go GOP
Texas Supreme Court
Chief Justice Nathan Hecht,
a Republican, overcame
Democratic challenger, El
Paso State District Court
HIGHLIGHTS
34 Judge William Moody,
gamering 59 percent of the
vote to Moody’s 37 percent.
Incumbent members of
the State Board of Education
retained their seats but
in a race between non-
incumbents for SBOE Dist.
13, Democrat Erika Beltran
won, getting 90 percent of
the vote to Libertarian Junart
Sodoy’s 10 percent.
Republican Konni Burton
of Fort Worth won the race
to succeed Wendy Davis
in the state Senate Dist. 10
race, getting about 53 percent
of the vote to Democratic-
opponent Libby Willis’s
nearly 45 percent. Sen.
Leticia Van de Putte of San
Antonio did not resign to run
for higher office. She will
continue to hold the Sen.
Dist. 26 seat. Dan Patrick’s
successor in northwest
Houston’s Sen. Dist. 7 is
Republican Paul Bettencourt,
who got nearly 72 percent
of the vote to Democrat Jim
Davis’s 26 percent.
Incumbents in the 150 state
House of Representatives
races, regardless of party,
dominated their challengers.
One exception was
incumbent San Antonio
Dist. 117 Rep. Philip Cortez,
who wjth 47 percent of
the vote lost to Republican
challenger Rick Galindo’s 52
percent. Another incumbent
Democrat, Rep. Mary Ann
Perez of Dist. 144, which
includes parts of Houston,
Pasadena, Deer Park and
Baytown, lost to Republican
challenger Gilbert Pena by
1.31 percent of the vote.
Notably, Republican House
Speaker Joe Straus, in his
race to retain the San Antonio
House Dist. 121 seat, won
against Libertarian Jeff
Carruthers, 82 percent to 18
percent. Straus must receive
the support of at least 76 of
the next Texas Legislature’s
150 members to retain the
speakership in the coming
regular session convening in
January.
Proposition 1 wins
approval
Finally, Proposition 1 on
the statewide ballot — “The
constitutional amendment
providing for the use and
dedication of certain money
transferred to the state
highway fund to assist in the
completion of transportation
construction, maintenance,
and rehabilitation projects,
not to include toll roads” —
passed with 80 percent of the
vote in favor and 20 percent
against.
POLK COUNTY
ENTERPRISE
Tiuinm
AaunWmna
ALVIN HOLLEY, PUBLISHER
Telephone Number 134-3274357
(USPS 437-340)
Emend as Ptmxfcal Matter at the Post Office at Livingston TX 77351
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circulation@easttexasnews.com
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enterprise@easttexasnews.com
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Peak, Greg. Polk County Enterprise (Livingston, Tex.), Vol. 132, No. 91, Ed. 1 Thursday, November 13, 2014, newspaper, November 13, 2014; Livingston, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth820851/m1/4/: accessed July 16, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu; crediting Livingston Municipal Library.