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'WEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW 3
Business Review and Prospect
Physical output of industry and trade in the Nation
during the past few weeks has remained about stationary
according to Barron's business index, which is adjusted
for population growth, long-term trend, and seasonal
variation. On May 25th, the index stood at 108.0, as
compared with 107.8 on April 20th. Thus, it appears
that the sharp rise in the production of war materials is
still being approximately offset by a corresponding
decline in the production of goods for civilian use. It
is probable that this situation will continue for a few
more weeks, after which the index measuring total
physical production in the country at large should show
a strong and sustained rise.
The recent announcement of an impending order by
the W. P. B., designed to limit new plant expansion to
establishments already under way and to those which are
indispensable in the production of an adequate supply
'of essential war materials, is expected to have far-reach-.
ing results. For example, there will be less competition
for steel plates between ships and new factories; the
pressure on the machine tool industry will be eased but
will remain strong; machine tools which otherwise would
have been needed for new plants wil under the revised
plan be used to increase the output in present plants
and those which can be converted; raw materials such as
copper, which would have gone into the building of new
plants, will under the prospective plan be used in the
existing plants and those well advanced in construction.
Finally, the proposed plan should prove a boon to small
industrialists who can do a good job on war contracts but
not good enough to have competed with a new factory
and new equipment. Thus, many companies which
might otherwise have been forced out of business may
be revived by the pressure that Donald Nelson's order
will create for maximum utilization of existing facilities.
Other developments of far-reaching significance are
proceeding at a rapid rate under the stress of war, and
many of these will exert a profound influence on the
peace-time economy which will follow. For example,
precision tools far superior to those hitherto in use are
rapidly being developed; great emphasis is being placed
upon the training of large numbers of technicians and
workmen; new materials and new plant capacity for
producing them are being perfected. Included in the
category of these new activities are not only the many-
fold expansion of aluminum and magnesium production.
and the development of plastics and synthetic rubber
but also the expansion of the older products such as
new alloys of steel and other metals; new substitutes for
tin, chromium, and nickel for protective coatings; resin-
bonded plywoods and others wood products; new paper
and other substitutes for rubber and cork in many of
their uses; new uses of textile fibers to replace burlap
and silk and wool.
TEXAS BUSINESS
Readjustment resulting from the conversion of civilian
activities to war work noted above with respect to the
Nation as a whole has its counterpart in Texas with the
result that the sharp gains in the output of the war
industries are about offset by decides in numerous
civilian industries. As in the country at large, more-
over, there are indications of a positive sustained upward
trend in Texas industry and trade which should soon
become apparent.
The composite index of industry and trade -in Texas
during April remained practically unchanged from the
preceding month but was twenty-four points, or more
than twenty-two per cent, above April last year.
INDEXES OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN TEXAS
Employment - - - - -----
Pay Rolls - - - - - - - -
Miscellaneous Freight Carloadings
(Southwest District) _---
Runs of Cnide Oil to Stills- -
Department Store Sales__--_.
Consumption of Electric Power___
COMPOSITE INDEX -_ __
*Revised.
April April March
113.3 97.6 1131
152.7 107.7 150.2
106.6
189.0
120.0
173.1
135.2
75.2
212.8
114.0
151.9
111.2
110.7
202.0*
'120.5
168.8*
135.4*
Employment in Texas non-agricultural industries in-
creased only slightly from March to April, but total
pay rolls increased from 150.2 per cent to 152.7 per cent
of the 1929 level, or a gain of 1.6 per cent during the
month. Electric power consumption for all purposes-
industrial, commercial, and domestic-increased more
than the normal seasonal amount from March to April
causing this component of the index to rise from 168.8
to 173.1. The remaining three components of the busi-
ness index showed varying amounts of decline after
adjustment for seasonal variation was made. Depart-
ment sore sales changed only slightly, the index having
moved down one-half point from 120.5 to 120.0. The
index of runs of crude oil to stills dropped substantially
from 202.0 to 189.0, and miscellaneous freight carload-
ings from 110.7 to 106.6.
FARM CASH INCOME
Cash income from agriculture in Texas during April
continued the sharp year-to-year increase observed in
each of the preceding months of the current year.
As computed by this Bureau, farm cash income for the
month of April totalled $49,199,000 compared with $30,-
681,000 during the corresponding month of 1491 (see
footnote at bottom of table), an increase of more than
sixty per cent. During the first four months of the
current year, the computed aggregate cash income from
For Other Texas Data, See Statistical T ables at the End of This Pisblication
WEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW
3