The Cross Section, Volume 16, Number 8, August 1970 Page: 1
This periodical is part of the collection entitled: Texas State Publications and was provided to The Portal to Texas History by the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.
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il L wnwrr .rAA Monthly Publication of the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District No. 1
Volume 16-No. 8 "THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR WATER"
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Pictured, left to right, in the Washington offices of Congressman George Mahon are: Ross Goodwin, Vice-President of the
trict's Board of Directors; Congressman Bob Poage (Waco); Ray Kitten, Member of the District's Board of Directors; Congr
man George Mahon (Lubbock); and Frank Rayner.August, 1970
.
Dis-
ess-POPULATION TO
WATER ABOUNDS
The excellent article by Mr. S. A.
Arbingast, "Comments On The 1970
Census," (appearing in this issue of
the Cross Section) prompted these
further comments on the interdepen-
dence of population density on avail-
able water supplies.
Although Mr. Arbingast's paper
may be of primary interest to the pro-
fessional users of demographic data;
his analysis of the census data pun-
gently stresses the agricultural, miner-
al and water interests of the entire
State. The overwhelming inference is
upon the limiting influence of avail-
able water on population growth.
Earlier censuses established the
trend of continued population growth
of the western part of Texas. How-
ever, the 1970 census revealed the
end, and possible reversal, of this
trend.
It takes very little study to perceive
the primary reason for this demog-
raphic reversal - the western popula-
tion continued to grow vigorously un-
til reaching nearly full utilization of
the area's limited water supply. With-
out additional water supplies, the vast
climatic, land, mineral, and human re-
sources of western Texas will waste to
nonuse.
The accelerating trend to urbaniza-
tion has resulted in the concentration
of approximately 50 percent of the
State's entire population in only four
metropolitan areas; Dallas-Fort Worth
(Dallas, Denton and Tarrant Coun-
ties); Houston (Brazoria, Harris and
Galveston Counties); Austin (Travis
County); and San Antonio (Bexar
County). This means that half of the
State's 11 million (+) population is
concentrated on only 3.5 percent ofComments on the 1970 Census
Mahon Announces
Grant
Congressman George Mahon, 36
year Congressional veteran from the
17th Congressional District, and
Chairman of the House of Representa-
tives Appropriations Committee, has
announced the award of a $100,263.00
grant, from the Office of Water Re-
sources Research (OWRR), U.S. De-
partment of the Interior, to Texas Tech
University and the District, to continue
modeling research on the Ogallala
aquifer.
A $98,578.00 grant from OWRR,
in August 1968, provided the funding
for the first two years of this research.
The District and Texas Tech Univer-
sity will also contribute a total of $38,-
213.00 to this 4-year research effort.
The objective of this research is to
develop mathematical modeling tech-
niques, amenable to high speed digital
computer analysis, for developing a
predictive model for the Ogallala and
similar aquifers. It is hoped that the
model developed by this research will
be readily adaptable as an aquifer man-
agement tool. It will aid water impor-
tation studies now underway by both
the Federal and State agencies.
An explanation of the scope and
objectives of this research are pre-
sented in the article, "Dynamic Model
Of The Ogallala Aquifer," on page 3.STANLEY A. ARBINGAST*
The preliminary 1970 Census count
indicates that on April 1 Texas had
10,981,447 people. This number is
somewhat below the projection of
11,187,000 for July 1, 1969, and of
11,399,000 for July 1, 1970, pub-
lished previously by the Bureau of
the Census, and it is approximately
one million below the projection of
12 million for December 1970 made
by the Bureau of Business Research in
the mid-1960's (The Bureau did not
assume a decline in the birth rate or
shortages of water). Preliminary fig-
ures for many communities in the
state were far below local expecta-
tions; in fact, several cities of sub-
stantial size lost population. Final
revisions, after a thorough recheck by
Census personnel, will probably bring
these disappointing figures to a total
in excess of 11 million.
In contrast to some local forecasts,
the annual estimates made by the
Population Research Center and pub-
lished each spring in the Texas Busi-
ness Review appear to have been re-
markably accurate, in view of the
Census counts. . Fortunately for the
staff of the Center, they have confined
their activity to estimating current
population and have stayed awayfrom the precarious business of fore-
casting.
A number of reasons explain why
forecasters at state and local levels
were too high in their predictions.
First and foremost, the decline in the
birth rate had a greater effect than
was anticipated. Second, the assump-
tion in general use by forecasters that
a utility meter connection serves an
average of from 3.0 to 3.5 persons
clearly appears too high. Obviously,
many more dwellings are occupied by
only one or two persons than was the
case when the 1960 Census was tak-
en. Third, automation of agriculture,
of mineral production and explora-
tion, and of manufacturing has
proved to be more of a loss factor
than was assumed generally. Most
counties in which the economy is more
dependent on agriculture and mineral
production than on other activities
show population declines. People
leave the farm as agricultural proce-
dures are further mechanized. Farms
become larger. A loss occurred even
in Hale County, for many years one
of the leading counties in agricultural
income in the nation. Declines in
mining activity and automation of
production facilities in place were the
-continued on page 2its nearly 276,600 square miles of land
area.
The relative voting enormity of this
population concentration is further
nurtured by the type of urban migra-
tion that may be taking place. The of-
ficial 1970 census data will probably
reveal that the younger (below 30
years of age) generations are flocking
to the cities. If the newly enacted Fed-
eral laws giving full voting priviledges
to 18-year olds is upheld by the courts;
the foundations of our stable, rurally
founded form of governmental rule
and reason is subject to severe scru-
tiny; and to possible eventual over-
haul at the whim of the metropolitan
voter. The age old realization that,
"as goes agriculture, so goes the econ-
omy," is subject to further decay with
-continued on page 2
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High Plains Underground Water Conservation District No. 1 (Tex.). The Cross Section, Volume 16, Number 8, August 1970, periodical, August 1970; Lubbock, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth1532945/m1/1/?q=Lamar+University: accessed June 15, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.