Port Aransas South Jetty (Port Aransas, Tex.), Vol. 15, No. 1, Ed. 1 Thursday, January 3, 1985 Page: 7 of 12
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PORT ARANSAS SOUTH JETTY
Port Aransan elected
to board of directors
Peter Helferich of Port Aransas
was recently elected to t he Board of
Directors of the National Camp-
ground Association.
Helferich is the owner of Island
RV Resort in Port Aransas.
The Washington D.C.-based or-
ganization is dedicated to “keeping
the camping experience alive," Hel-
ferich said.
The 20-year-old organization also
promotes high standards in the
campground industry.
As a member of the board, Helfe-
rich will attend board meetings in
Washington about three times per
year, he said. He also attends meet-
ings of two association committees,
the regionalization committee and
the standards committee.
The regionalization committee is
charged with dividing the country
into six campground regions. Areas
will be grouped according to geo-
graphical region and type of camp-
ing the area supports.
The standards committee strives
to standardize campgrounds to
make it easier for campers to move
from one campsite to another
USINESS
THURSDAY, JANUARY 3,1985 PAGE 7A
Market briefs
Looking ahead
-By H.C. (Hank) Gillespie
Peter Helferich
ISLAND SERVICE CO.
GENERAL CONTRACTOR
RESIDENTIAL
& BUSINESS
SALES &
SERVICE
512-749-6989
JIM BARR
JIM NORTON
NUT HQAt/|0 Of All A
@
MASTER ELECTRICIAN
GENERAL ELECTRIC
RHEEM
WHIRLPOOL
Here we are in a brand new year.
One that could be living proof that
political campaign promises are
sometimes kept. We have had sev-
eral meaningful promises from Presi-
dent Ronald Reagan during Cam-
paign '84. Among the ones most
likely to NOT be kept are 1) no
increase in our income taxes and 2)
defense spending will not be cut.
The ones that should come true are
1) social security benefits won’t be
reduced, 2) interest rates will get
lower, 3) the recovery will continue,
4) inflation will remain under con-
trol. and 5) the dollar will continue
to get stronger.
Let’s look at the first two of these
promises. Whenever politicians say
they are going to simplify our taxes,
the correct translation is they are
going to RAISE our taxes. Remem-
ber, the prime rule in interpreting
political statements: disregard all
of what they SAY and watch very
carefully what they DO. Raising our
taxes, in itself, is not a terrible
thing. We need more income at the
federal level to balance our budget.
The government is just like any
other business It needs a positive
cash flow' to become and remain
sound. Just like in any other busi-
ness, the books won’t balance un-
less we have more income than
expenses. One of the Reagan Admin-
istration’s “sacred cows" is the
Department of Defense. Congress
i
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ARANSAS PASS
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llll
has sent many messages to the
White House to the effect that if the
defense budget isn’t severely re-
duced, the legislators won’t pass
Reagan’s budget. So, we can con-
sider the defense industry for the
next year or two as an un-favored
investment.
This observer feels that 1985 will
bring out a budget that is geared to
continue the recovery. Our taxes
will be simplified and Secretary of
Defense, Casper Weinberger, will
learn to do what many of the rest of
us already know how to do-live
within our means.
The other five promises men-
tioned earlier are very likely to
come to pass. Social security bene-
fits (don’t include Medicare) will
remain Untouched. There is simply
too much political risk in reducing
benefits to Mom and Dad. As for the
budget deficit, the mere fact that
the deficit is so visible in the minds
of all the people in the world will aid
in its reduction. This will bring
about lower interest rates because
Uncle won’t need to borrow as
much. Lower interest rates will aid
at the bottom line of most busi-
nesses, which will prolong the re-
covery. If all the above does hap-
pen, inflation will be something we
remember around the cocktail ta-
ble, at least for a few more years.
The last one is the hardest. Nor-
mally, as interest rates fall in the
U.S., the dollar is sold by foreign
investors so the price (or strength)
of the dollar goes down. This time
could be different due to the safety
factor that exists in our country. It
is not unreasonable to believe that
foreigners will pay a premium (by
accepting lower rates on their
investments in the U.S.) to keep
their money in the States. If I’m
right (stranger things have hap-
pened), we are in for several good
years for profitable investing. Pro-
ceeding on the assumption that my
forecast is correct, we should have
an extended business cycle. This
will favor both the bond and the
equity markets.
Some investments that seem par-
ticularly interesting are:
1) Bonds: Government, corpor-
ate, and municipal. Even “junk”, or
lower rated bonds should be good
investments. Remember, when in-
terest rates go DOWN, bond prices
go UP.
2) Airlines, trucking companies,
banks, savings & loans, auto manu-
facturing. As the economy smooths
out and oil prices continue down,
all these will benefit.
3) Semi-conductors, computer
hardware and software manufac-
turers, communication companies.
The extended business cycle dra-
matically affects t he profits of t hese
types of companies.
The oth<*r side of the coin shows
the following as probably not the
best places to put your money for
the near term:
1) Gold and silver mining stocks,
resource-oriented companies, smelt-
ing and fabrication companies,
domestic companies that export to
the overseas markets. If inflation
continues under control, these
types of companies will not be as
profitable.
2) Tax-shelter marketing com-
panies. With all the talk about tax
reform, this type of company has to
“mark time”.
3) The entire defense industry.
For reasons we mentioned earlier.
All of us have a bit of Nostrad-
amus about us. This week’s column
feeds that part of me. Obviously, no
one has a crystal ball. But from my
vant age point, this is the most likely
course for the economy to take.
And you know the definition of an
economist, don’t you? That’s a
person who has correctly forecast
five out of the last two recessions.
As usual, if you have any ques-
tions just drop me a line at I’. 0. Box
1538, Port Aransas 78373, or call
me, collect, at 512/888-4481. Until
next week, good luck in the mar-
kets...
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Judson, Mary. Port Aransas South Jetty (Port Aransas, Tex.), Vol. 15, No. 1, Ed. 1 Thursday, January 3, 1985, newspaper, January 3, 1985; Port Aransas, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth662780/m1/7/: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu; crediting Ellis Memorial Library.