The Abilene Reporter-News (Abilene, Tex.), Vol. 70, No. 200, Ed. 2 Thursday, January 11, 1951 Page: 24 of 29
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18
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5
REDS MIGHT STUMBLE INTO ONE
Will Russia Start World War?
Greatest Danger This Spring
(EDITOR NOTE: The ac-
companying article on the mil-
itary outlook in Europe to by
Wee Gallagher, Associated
Press executive who has just
returned from ten years serve
ice as a foreign correspondent
His impressions of what may
happen and what can be done
about it come from wide ex-
perience and living, as he puts
it, “next door to the Russians”
since the end of World War
II: He has been in charge
of AP operations in Germany.
This is the second of two art- -
teles in which Gallagher dis-
cusses the problems of re-arm-
ing Western Europe. In the
flrat one he said a large part
of Europe does not now have
the will to defend itself. Hence
morale is one of the greatest
problems facing General Eisen-
hower.)
By WES GALLAGHEE
NEW YORK, Jan. 11. (—Will
the Soviets provoke a war? When?
What do you do about it?
Despite their seeming lethargy
three three questions give Euro-
peans the same nightmares they
give Americans today
No one knows positive answers
to these questions, including the se
called Russian “experts’, but if
you live next door to the Russians
to Europe—as I have since the end
Of the last war—the answers go
like this:
(1) The Soviets are apt to blun-
der through an aggressive act into
a world war rather than start one
deliberately.
has only a handful of troops in
Europe. Great Britain la in a
similar fix
The Western military situation
in Europe can not get worse; it
can only get better. Therefore it
may be felt from the Soviet point
of view 1*51 would be the year to
strike.
The big deterrent to the atom
lieves to the only thing now stop-
ping the Soviet from embarking
an all-out world conquest.
What can the west do in the
event of attack, particularly this
year? Should more troops be sent
te Europe? Should the United
States withdraw?
Despite its tremendous ad-
vantages to manpower, trained
troops and vast ground strength,
the Soviet Union would have defi-
nite military weaknesses in fight-
ing to Europe, particularly in an
extended campaign.
These are:
1. Low industrial capacity for
their vast manpower Soviet steel
production is about one fifth that
of the United States.
2. Long and vulnerable Unos
of communication to Western
Europe
3. Uncertain satellite loyalty,
particularly if the Soviet should
start losing or show signs of mil-
itary weakness
Unquestionably the Soviet Union
could gain great initial victories
just as Hitler did Holding Their
initial gains would be another
(2) The greatest war danger pe-
riod since 1939 is from April
through September of this year.
1*1 You must ight in Europe as
long as you can, no matter how
little you have.
USELESS TO SPECULATE
11 la useless to speculate on
whether the Kremlin Is planning a
deliberate all out attack. Thia
would be the moot closely kept se-
trot to the moot closely guarded
country in the world. The best in-
telligence agencies in the world
frankly admit they would not like-
ly obtain such top secret informa-
tion. The best they hope for would
be a few days warning of a pos-
sible attack by external evidence
such as troop dispositions, buildups
end similar movements.
On this count they all say there
has been no significant change to
troop dispositions among the Iron
Curtain through Europe in the past
year or two. But the octets al-
ways have had enough there to
overrun Europe. It would only
need an order and minor shifts te
send them into action.
The argument that the Soviets
would not attack because they sre
"getting what they want without it"
does not hold water.
Hitler was getting all he needed
in Europe in 1939 without war. He
had the continent economically in
the palm of his hand. He needed
only to be patient But he wasn’t
He miscalculated that the west
would not fight
The danger seems te be thst the
Russians will not be patient, that
they will make the same misealeu-
lation of the west and that they
will make one more aggressive grab
in Europe that will touch off a war
just as Hitler's invasion % Poland
NO GIVE’
Western Europe is just as itt was
to 1939. There is no more give
for aggressors. Thee are no more
plums left for the taking. All of
the countries are sewed up by
pacta, the presence of American or
British troops, or deep moral com-
mitments.__, . ,. .
Above all things, the Soviet U nion
would like to kave control of Ger-
many and more specifically the In-
dustrial Ruhr area.
The Ruhr would give Russia the _
industrial- might to match the mil.
lions of people she has snatched
in Asia and Eastern Europe
An aggressive move toward Ger-
many or the Ruhr would be cer-
tain to touch off a new world war.
Any such move would immediate”
involve American and British
troops since they are on the
-I. same in true of Austria.
Berlin, Vienna and Trieste Nor-
way to under the collective pro-
tection of the Atlantic Pact
I has been said the Russians
might try to pick off rebellious
Yugoslavia by using satellite
troops. This would touch off • full
scale war in the heart of Europe.
It is impossible to too how thia
could be kept from spreading
There have been rumors that Eng-
land already has given secret com-
mitments to Tito. __,
Another Soviet engineered pass
at Greece would deeply involve
the United States and Great Brit
ain, with their Mediterranean and
United Nations interests.
Turkey, now fighting gallantly
with American troops to Korea, la
in a similar situation.
The easy days of country snatch-
ing to Eastern Europe are gone
whether the Kremlin recognizes
thia remains to be seen. Like Hit
ler it may be encouraged by past
successes to make another try.
This is the grave danger Eure,
peans feel as they wait for the
Russians’ next move. Since 1945
the Kremlin has moved aggros,
sively year after year. What will
they do this year? __,
This brings up the question of
when? ___
Any political move would have
to be backed by Soviet military
"Lahtng to April most at Europe
to favorable te military operations.
By the end of September the most
favorable period passes .
This la looked upon as the prime
possible war period to * year of
decision. If the Soviets have de-
sided to risk aggression, they
probably will never have a more
favorable timo
Western Europe is now at its
military weakest. Its morale to
low. Many countries are divided
Communist fifth columns to still
potent in key areas. The United
States has not yet rearmed and
matter. Western military defense
plans are designed to take ad-
vantage of Soviet, weaknesses
First there is the atom bomb.-
into being on the ground in
Europe, although they know they
cannot organize enough te hold a
Soviet attack, this year er next
To make the atom attack sue-
cessful it to necessary to engage
and dram Soviet forces on the
g ound.
Il would be exactly the same
tactic Russia used against Hitler,
trading space against men and
supplies.
If Russia were able te overrun
Europe without a tight, atomic
bombing of the Soviet Union would
not have the desired effect. The
Soviet army would have overrun
and captured new industrial cen-
ters it could put to use to replace
those knocked out in the homeland
and at the same time would have
its original supplies intact.
The second phase of Western de-
fense plans envisages building up
enough troops to hold a line across
Europe and block the Soviet, at
least partially, from over' running
the continent.
The line planned is on the Rhine
River, but it would take a mini-
mum of 35 divisions to bold this
line. At best these would not be
ready before late ‘52 or early ‘53.
The third and final phase mili-
tary men want to reach la to
create a highly armored force of
45 divisions stationed east of the
Rhine ready to counter attack if
the Soviets move Military men
feel this force combined with the
atom bomb would deter the So-
viet from attacking by insuring its
defeat if it did
At present military men are to
A Soviet attack would be met
with an all out air assault by the
United States and Britain with the
atom bomb
Its aim would be to rip the In-
dustrial heart out of the Soviet
Union if possible and further re-
duce its comparatively small pro-
ducing capacity. It would have the
further aim of smashing long So-
viet rail lines of communication
and cutting off sources of war sup-
plies
it is 2,200 air line miles from
the Ural Mountains—major man-
ufacturing area in the Soviet Un-
ion to the English channel. All
communication is over a thin,
largely antiquated rail system
Western aims would be to ham-
string Soviet manpower to
Europe by knocking out home
bases and leaving armies
stranded.
To do this it is necessary to
event of attack to make Soviet
armies in Europe use up their
stockpiles of supplies For this rea-
son it is essential the West have
ground forces in Western Europe
which force the Soviet to fight, if
even on the smallest scale.
Though Western ground forces
be small and lose every battle
from Germany to Spam, they
might contribute to victory in the
end by leaving an over-extended
Soviet force without the materials
to carry on.
This is the reason why Western
military men are straining every
effort to get some sort of forces
2
LAFF-A-DAY
"I hear a noise downstairs. Dia
we any good HAL * Herne
phase one. They need every avail-
able man to make the Russians,
if they attack-use up their re-
sources.
it to a political and military par-
adox that the only troops in
Europe in numbers ready to fight
now are the very ones which are
not in the Atlantic Fact and not
included in present aid plana.
These are an estimated 1k Turk-
ish divisions (have received nomi-
nal U. S. aid); 30 Yugoslav di-
visions; 1* Spanish divisions
The Turks, who distinguished
themselves in Korea, are con-
sidered especially important since
they are on Russia a flank and the
only forces that constitute a threat
to Russia Itself The Turks threat-
en the vital Baku oil fields.
Political considerations have 1
blocked military help to Spain and
Yugoslavia. This has not made
American and Western allied mil-
itary men to Europe any happier
when they contemplate fighting
with the skeleton forces on phase
one.
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The Abilene Reporter-News (Abilene, Tex.), Vol. 70, No. 200, Ed. 2 Thursday, January 11, 1951, newspaper, January 11, 1951; Abilene, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth1648471/m1/24/?q=%22%22~1: accessed July 16, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu; crediting Abilene Public Library.